Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2085 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2085 MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3056 MSY 15:14 → LAX 17:10 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2085 Delta Flight history →	MSY 08:03	LAX 10:00	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 872 Delta	MSY 14:47	LAX 16:54	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3056 Southwest	MSY 15:14	LAX 17:10	19%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296	51m Houston	IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743	5h 47m	80%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON