Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4977 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4977 MSY 06:29 → MCO 09:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1432 MSY 15:06 → MCO 18:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4977 Southwest	MSY 06:29	MCO 09:14	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2943 Southwest	MSY 09:46	MCO 12:31	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2944 Southwest	MSY 14:51	MCO 17:36	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 1432 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 15:06	MCO 18:08	15%	5%	1.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON