tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 716 American MSY 08:00 PHL 12:09 7% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 2534 American MSY 12:00 PHL 16:09 11% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:54DL 1547 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 7h 04m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 7h 36m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790 2h 52m Detroit DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686 7h 06m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065 7h 38m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:00 → ATL 19:35DL 3146 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 59m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131 4h 49m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 6h 38m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSY 10:25 → ORD 13:05UA 1677 3h 29m Chicago ORD 16:34 → PHL 19:48UA 2825 8h 23m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON