Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 366 at 09:54, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 366 Southwest	MSY 09:54	PHX 11:17	7%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:54DL 1547	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 43m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	8h 50m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 18:12 → PHX 19:39DL 1135	10h 20m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	MSY 10:14 → BNA 11:54WN 1146	2h 26m Nashville	BNA 14:20 → PHX 15:55WN 639	7h 41m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → PHX 21:45DL 929	8h 23m	98%	88%
United Details →	MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376	3h 22m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PHX 14:33UA 631	8h 29m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085	3h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 13:46 → PHX 15:21DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest	9h 18m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	3h 11m Houston	IAH 14:23 → PHX 15:22UA 1798	7h 29m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON