Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 09:53, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1971 Southwest	MSY 16:53	SAN 18:42	23%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:54DL 1547	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 48m	100%	87%
United Details →	MSY 10:25 → ORD 13:05UA 1677	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 16:26 → SAN 18:51UA 2138	10h 26m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:41DL 712	8h 59m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	MSY 10:14 → BNA 11:54WN 1146	1h 54m Nashville	BNA 13:48 → SAN 15:50WN 660	7h 36m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:20DL 924	10h 07m	99%	85%
United Details →	MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376	3h 25m Denver	DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302	8h 51m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369	8h 55m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SAN 11:43DL 843	7h 23m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON