Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 09:53, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2421 United	MSY 14:53	SFO 17:32	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1973 United Flight history →	MSY 07:59	SFO 10:49	13%	3%	0.6%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823	10h 21m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 21:50 → SFO 23:53DL 2089	9h 23m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:54DL 1547	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672	8h 35m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:55 → SFO 23:49DL 656	10h 27m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495	9h 15m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	MSY 10:14 → BNA 11:54WN 1146	2h 00m Nashville	BNA 13:54 → SFO 16:18WN 2300	8h 04m	99%	85%
United Details →	MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253	3h 53m Houston	IAH 17:19 → SFO 19:32UA 1134	9h 25m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 16:17 → SFO 18:14DL 442	8h 55m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON