Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1485 at 18:10, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1485 Southwest	MSY 18:10	STL 20:05	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSY 10:14 → BNA 11:54WN 1146	3h 47m Nashville	BNA 15:41 → STL 16:59WN 1310	6h 45m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:54DL 1547	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 57m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:07DL 543	6h 54m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 17:00 → ATL 19:35DL 3146	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 53m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	1h 57m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	6h 05m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → STL 20:06DL 2833	7h 24m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSY 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 2497	2h 16m Dulles	IAD 18:06 → STL 19:37UA 4527 · flown by GoJet	7h 20m	98%	85%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	3h 39m Houston	IAH 11:58 → STL 14:20UA 2042	7h 20m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON