Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1517 at 08:19, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1517 Southwest	MSY 08:19	TPA 11:06	5%	1%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:54DL 1547	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	6h 19m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	6h 53m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	5h 22m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:34 → ATL 13:05DL 1424	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	5h 24m	97%	84%
American Details →	MSY 06:00 → MIA 09:13AA 867	2h 55m Miami	MIA 12:08 → TPA 13:21AA 1980	6h 21m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	1h 38m Houston	IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501	5h 19m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	6h 12m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 17:00 → ATL 19:35DL 3146	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	6h 29m	95%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	MSY 17:06 → ATL 19:59F9 2052	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → TPA 22:44F9 3054	4h 38m	68%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON