Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5176 MYR 06:23 → CLT 07:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2943 MYR 17:48 → CLT 18:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5176 PSA	MYR 06:23	CLT 07:33	7%	2%	1.8%	no record
OH 5290 PSA	MYR 10:14	CLT 11:23	8%	2%	1.7%	no record
AA 3296 American Flight history →	MYR 06:51	CLT 07:58	8%	3%	0.8%	90%
OH 5188 PSA	MYR 14:14	CLT 15:22	11%	2%	1.5%	no record
AA 2431 American Flight history →	MYR 12:02	CLT 13:09	13%	3%	0.8%	96%
AA 1417 American Flight history →	MYR 19:17	CLT 20:25	15%	4%	0.9%	73%
AA 2943 American Flight history →	MYR 17:48	CLT 18:58	16%	4%	0.9%	79%
AA 5878 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 09:15	CLT 10:32	0%	0%	0.0%	100%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON