Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1342 at 10:37 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 1342 MYR 10:37 → EWR 12:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3714 MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1342 United	MYR 10:37	EWR 12:36	13%	8%	1.8%	no record
YX 3489 Republic	MYR 12:41	EWR 14:47	23%	7%	3.1%	no record
UA 3714 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MYR 18:50	EWR 20:59	34%	10%	3.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON