Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, C5 4264 at 10:27, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


C5 4264 CommuteAir	MYR 10:27	IAD 12:12	9%	2%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444	5h 37m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787	5h 07m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	5h 04m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	6h 03m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MYR 20:02 → ATL 21:35DL 1093	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	4h 39m	96%	84%
American Details →	MYR 17:48 → CLT 18:58AA 2943	2h 26m Charlotte	CLT 21:24 → IAD 22:56AA 2608	5h 08m	96%	82%
American Details →	MYR 12:02 → CLT 13:09AA 2431	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 16:16 → IAD 17:54AA 5447 · flown by PSA	5h 52m	89%	78%
United Details →	MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59UA 3714 · flown by Republic	51m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	4h 29m	79%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON