Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, 9E 5153 at 10:36, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


9E 5153 Endeavor	MYR 10:36	LGA 12:27	8%	2%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513	4h 41m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	5h 08m	98%	85%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	3h 53m Charlotte	CLT 11:51 → LGA 13:47AA 2268	6h 56m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468	7h 37m	98%	82%
American Details →	MYR 17:48 → CLT 18:57AA 2943	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 21:43 → LGA 23:36AA 2031	5h 48m	96%	74%
American Details →	MYR 12:02 → CLT 13:08AA 2431	2h 09m Charlotte	CLT 15:17 → LGA 17:15AA 1942	5h 13m	89%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON