tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via Charlotte, leaving 12:02, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3402 Republic MYR 17:04 ORD 18:39 9% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 3h 03m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 6h 28m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147 5h 10m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → MYR 17:48 → CLT 18:58AA 2943 3h 42m Charlotte CLT 22:40 → ORD 23:48AA 627 7h 00m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MYR 20:02 → ATL 21:35DL 1093 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 4h 51m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 6h 30m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 2h 25m Detroit DTW 15:56 → ORD 16:23DL 2358 5h 49m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MYR 09:15 → CLT 10:33AA 5878 · flown by Piedmont 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 14:02 → ORD 14:03AA 2530 5h 47m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 1h 33m Philadelphia PHL 14:41 → ORD 16:09AA 821 5h 50m 93% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON