Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


PT 5863 Piedmont	MYR 15:09	PHL 17:05	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
OH 5634 PSA	MYR 13:03	PHL 14:50	8%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 57m	98%	91%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 09:20 → PHL 11:09AA 2565	4h 18m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	5h 09m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MYR 20:02 → ATL 21:35DL 1093	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	4h 57m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 30m	100%	87%
American Details →	MYR 17:48 → CLT 18:57AA 2943	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 21:52 → PHL 23:40AA 1827	5h 52m	96%	83%
American Details →	MYR 12:02 → CLT 13:08AA 2431	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 16:46 → PHL 18:34AA 864	6h 32m	89%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON