tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:55, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 297 United Flight history → EWR 07:39 BZN 10:26 9% 3% 0.9% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:30DL 2946 8h 30m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:12UA 1758 3h 27m Denver DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513 9h 35m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 9h 56m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 3h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 12h 24m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 7h 17m 93% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:06 → MSP 19:58DL 2313 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 46m 94% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → DFW 19:15AA 1608 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:09 → BZN 22:11AA 1774 8h 11m 73% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON