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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 40 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4178 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4178 LGA 06:18 → DAL 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 20:32 → DFW 23:08 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 4178 Southwest LGA 06:18 DAL 08:40 4% 1% 1.3% no record
AA 2728 American Flight history → EWR 05:51 DFW 08:40 7% 3% 1.6% 95%
AA 1597 American Flight history → LGA 06:30 DFW 09:23 7% 3% 2.0% 89%
AA 2234 American Flight history → JFK 08:15 DFW 11:11 10% 3% 1.0% 85%
UA 1494 United Flight history → EWR 07:07 DFW 09:35 11% 4% 0.9% 93%
DL 873 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:00 DFW 09:35 11% 5% 1.6% 78%
AA 1303 American Flight history → EWR 08:00 DFW 10:51 12% 6% 1.3% 85%
AA 1987 American Flight history → LGA 08:35 DFW 11:25 12% 5% 2.0% 81%
WN 2397 Southwest LGA 09:44 DAL 12:02 12% 2% 1.6% no record
AA 3289 American Flight history → LGA 07:30 DFW 10:23 12% 5% 2.0% 77%
AA 1010 American JFK 09:23 DFW 11:53 12% 4% 1.0% no record
AA 1880 American JFK 11:36 DFW 14:29 14% 4% 1.1% no record
DL 856 Delta Flight history → LGA 09:30 DFW 12:09 15% 5% 1.4% 82%
AA 1796 American Flight history → EWR 12:35 DFW 15:14 16% 8% 1.3% 75%
WN 4425 Southwest LGA 12:29 DAL 14:47 17% 6% 2.0% no record
UA 1396 United EWR 13:10 DFW 15:57 17% 8% 1.1% no record
AA 2088 American Flight history → LGA 11:02 DFW 13:37 18% 7% 2.0% 85%
DL 869 Delta Flight history → LGA 12:29 DFW 15:10 18% 8% 1.4% 75%
AA 3113 American LGA 10:02 DFW 12:37 18% 7% 2.0% no record
AA 1609 American Flight history → LGA 13:08 DFW 15:58 18% 10% 2.6% 71%
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history → EWR 13:35 DFW 16:27 20% 8% 1.5% 74%
AA 1056 American Flight history → LGA 14:00 DFW 17:05 21% 9% 2.6% 65%
AA 1953 American Flight history → JFK 14:42 DFW 17:44 21% 7% 2.7% 69%
DL 496 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:55 DFW 21:07 22% 7% 1.2% 71%
UA 1590 United Flight history → EWR 15:33 DFW 18:31 22% 9% 1.1% 71%
WN 2452 Southwest LGA 19:29 DAL 21:49 24% 9% 1.8% no record
AA 1608 American Flight history → LGA 16:00 DFW 19:15 24% 10% 2.7% 63%
WN 2845 Southwest LGA 16:31 DAL 18:51 24% 8% 1.7% no record
AA 606 American Flight history → JFK 20:34 DFW 23:13 24% 6% 1.6% 60%
DL 846 Delta Flight history → LGA 15:00 DFW 18:01 25% 11% 1.7% 65%
AA 2178 American LGA 16:29 DFW 19:19 26% 11% 2.6% no record
AA 2238 American LGA 19:10 DFW 21:52 27% 12% 2.6% no record
AA 1810 American Flight history → EWR 17:10 DFW 20:10 28% 14% 2.0% 47%
DL 352 Delta Flight history → LGA 18:55 DFW 22:02 30% 15% 1.7% 55%
AA 2327 American Flight history → LGA 17:22 DFW 20:06 30% 13% 2.5% 25%
AA 2092 American Flight history → LGA 20:10 DFW 22:53 32% 13% 2.2% 59%
AA 1043 American Flight history → LGA 18:15 DFW 21:00 33% 13% 2.8% 61%
UA 1277 United EWR 20:37 DFW 22:56 35% 14% 1.0% no record
UA 2840 United EWR 18:11 DFW 20:52 36% 16% 1.3% no record
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history → LGA 20:32 DFW 23:08 40% 18% 3.2% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON