Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 492 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 492 EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 281 JFK 14:29 → IAH 17:19 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 575 United	LGA 06:05	IAH 08:31	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1093 Southwest	LGA 08:27	HOU 10:50	9%	3%	1.7%	no record
UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:05	IAH 09:50	10%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:05	IAH 09:49	12%	3%	1.1%	89%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	IAH 10:44	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 07:54	IAH 10:17	14%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 8120 United	EWR 12:07	IAH 15:02	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3856 Southwest	LGA 10:55	HOU 13:18	17%	7%	2.6%	no record
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	19%	5%	0.8%	86%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:53	IAH 13:38	19%	5%	0.7%	77%
B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:20	IAH 11:07	20%	6%	0.9%	66%
UA 344 United	LGA 12:39	IAH 15:04	21%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1830 United	EWR 14:02	IAH 16:56	21%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 1095 Southwest	LGA 13:29	HOU 15:52	21%	11%	3.2%	no record
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	21%	11%	1.4%	73%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	23%	6%	1.2%	76%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	23%	9%	1.1%	64%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	25%	16%	1.3%	65%
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	25%	9%	0.7%	69%
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	26%	9%	0.8%	75%
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	26%	10%	1.0%	62%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	27%	12%	0.8%	69%
WN 3432 Southwest	LGA 16:41	HOU 19:03	27%	13%	2.1%	no record
UA 1179 United	LGA 17:54	IAH 20:31	28%	13%	0.8%	no record
UA 2127 United Flight history →	EWR 19:48	IAH 22:09	33%	11%	0.8%	68%
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:17	IAH 22:41	33%	12%	0.9%	no record
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	35%	12%	2.6%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON