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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 49 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 171 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 353 EWR 18:45 → LAX 21:36 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 171 American Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 09:01 6% 2% 1.2% 89%
UA 2423 United Flight history → EWR 06:42 SNA 09:35 7% 2% 0.8% 94%
AA 33 American Flight history → JFK 07:05 LAX 10:07 7% 3% 1.1% 90%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 08:49 9% 2% 1.1% 88%
UA 2434 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 LAX 08:53 9% 2% 0.9% 79%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:59 LAX 09:58 9% 2% 1.1% 83%
AA 1 American Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:58 9% 3% 1.1% 87%
DL 742 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 LAX 09:55 9% 2% 0.8% 78%
DL 713 Delta Flight history → JFK 08:00 LAX 10:58 10% 2% 0.8% 78%
DL 773 Delta Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:54 11% 3% 0.8% 81%
AA 3 American Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:58 12% 4% 1.3% 85%
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 12% 3% 0.9% 84%
AA 2459 American Flight history → JFK 08:16 SNA 11:06 12% 3% 0.8% 91%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:49 12% 3% 1.0% 76%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 09:39 LAX 12:27 12% 3% 1.1% 83%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:30 LAX 11:25 13% 3% 1.1% 81%
DL 767 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:49 13% 3% 0.9% 86%
UA 2445 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:37 15% 4% 0.9% 81%
AA 306 American Flight history → JFK 17:00 LAX 20:19 15% 4% 1.2% 83%
AA 302 American Flight history → JFK 18:10 LAX 21:28 15% 5% 1.2% 76%
AA 255 American Flight history → JFK 14:40 LAX 17:48 15% 6% 2.0% 81%
UA 212 United Flight history → EWR 12:00 LAX 14:38 16% 7% 0.8% 78%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 11:04 LAX 13:52 16% 4% 1.3% 72%
AA 300 American Flight history → JFK 21:30 LAX 00:54 16% 5% 1.2% 73%
AA 117 American Flight history → JFK 20:00 LAX 23:24 16% 6% 1.1% 74%
UA 2679 United Flight history → EWR 10:45 LAX 13:41 17% 5% 0.8% 78%
AA 341 American Flight history → JFK 15:40 LAX 18:48 17% 7% 2.0% 77%
UA 2692 United Flight history → EWR 09:15 LAX 11:53 17% 4% 0.8% 69%
DL 771 Delta Flight history → JFK 14:52 LAX 17:43 18% 6% 1.5% 78%
DL 747 Delta Flight history → JFK 16:41 LAX 19:31 19% 6% 0.8% 81%
DL 738 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:47 LAX 20:38 19% 6% 0.7% 77%
UA 2191 United Flight history → EWR 14:15 LAX 17:13 19% 6% 0.8% 78%
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:33 LAX 19:21 21% 8% 1.7% 74%
B6 358 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:17 BUR 20:35 21% 9% 2.3% 71%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:40 LAX 00:51 21% 8% 1.4% 58%
DL 752 Delta Flight history → JFK 20:20 LAX 23:38 22% 6% 0.8% 73%
DL 707 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:54 LAX 18:47 22% 8% 1.3% 75%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 15:15 LAX 18:16 22% 9% 2.6% 71%
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:08 LAX 20:55 22% 8% 1.3% 73%
UA 8138 United EWR 16:06 LAX 18:43 22% 8% 0.7% no record
UA 2477 United EWR 14:37 SNA 17:29 24% 6% 0.7% no record
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:29 ONT 22:35 25% 9% 1.0% 62%
AS 287 Alaska Flight history → EWR 19:29 LAX 22:40 25% 9% 1.0% 74%
UA 2641 United Flight history → EWR 17:30 LAX 20:40 26% 10% 0.8% 72%
UA 1690 United Flight history → EWR 17:00 SNA 20:06 27% 7% 0.8% 87%worse than usual
UA 1355 United EWR 17:23 LAX 20:04 27% 9% 0.8% no record
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 20:55 LAX 23:42 27% 9% 1.3% 54%
UA 712 United Flight history → EWR 20:10 LAX 23:15 30% 11% 0.8% 59%
UA 353 United Flight history → EWR 18:45 LAX 21:36 31% 11% 0.9% 68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102 8h 10m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 8h 01m 91% 86%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:12UA 1758 1h 33m Denver DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 8h 25m 100% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON