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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 64 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 571 LGA 20:50 → FLL 23:59 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

AA 1249 American Flight history → LGA 06:00 MIA 09:15 4% 2% 1.4% 94%
AA 655 American Flight history → JFK 05:55 MIA 09:12 5% 1% 1.1% 95%
AA 1196 American Flight history → EWR 05:31 MIA 08:45 6% 2% 1.4% 95%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 06:00 FLL 09:00 7% 3% 1.7% 82%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:10 MIA 10:19 7% 3% 1.4% 89%
AA 1530 American Flight history → LGA 07:00 MIA 10:15 8% 3% 1.3% 88%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:05 MIA 10:24 8% 2% 1.1% 86%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 FLL 10:07 9% 3% 1.2% 88%
UA 1364 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 FLL 10:05 9% 3% 1.2% 92%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 FLL 09:00 9% 3% 1.6% 85%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:20 FLL 10:22 10% 3% 1.4% 81%
AA 970 American Flight history → LGA 07:59 MIA 11:14 10% 3% 1.4% 86%
UA 1135 United EWR 07:02 MIA 10:21 11% 3% 1.0% no record
AA 2017 American Flight history → JFK 07:30 MIA 10:45 11% 2% 1.1% 85%
AA 1152 American Flight history → EWR 08:00 MIA 11:10 12% 3% 1.5% 93%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 07:30 FLL 10:35 13% 4% 1.7% 82%
UA 2785 United Flight history → EWR 09:09 MIA 12:22 13% 3% 1.0% 97%
AA 968 American LGA 08:10 FLL 11:20 13% 4% 1.8% no record
AA 3211 American Flight history → LGA 09:28 MIA 12:45 15% 4% 1.7% 76%
UA 2151 United EWR 08:52 FLL 12:02 15% 5% 1.2% no record
UA 2759 United EWR 11:58 FLL 15:14 15% 5% 1.0% no record
DL 305 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:14 FLL 14:24 16% 4% 1.3% 80%
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 08:06 FLL 11:11 17% 5% 1.7% 80%
UA 2295 United Flight history → EWR 11:31 MIA 14:38 17% 5% 1.0% 81%
AA 2378 American LGA 11:04 MIA 14:11 17% 7% 1.7% no record
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:55 FLL 13:54 18% 6% 1.5% 75%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:08 MIA 14:22 19% 4% 1.4% 78%
UA 651 United Flight history → EWR 13:05 FLL 16:15 19% 6% 1.2% 81%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:15 MIA 14:24 19% 6% 1.7% 77%
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:22 FLL 11:28 19% 5% 1.6% 87%
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 08:00 FLL 11:04 19% 5% 1.7% 72%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:58 FLL 23:28 20% 8% 1.4% 68%
UA 1998 United EWR 10:13 FLL 13:06 20% 6% 1.2% no record
AA 688 American Flight history → JFK 11:10 MIA 14:15 21% 5% 1.4% 76%
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 12:00 FLL 15:10 22% 8% 1.9% 68%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:55 MIA 23:37 23% 10% 1.8% 70%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:30 FLL 18:54 23% 9% 2.2% 75%
AA 1174 American Flight history → JFK 18:50 MIA 22:22 23% 9% 2.2% 74%
AA 605 American Flight history → LGA 13:13 MIA 16:19 24% 10% 2.4% 68%
DL 2308 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:29 FLL 22:52 25% 13% 1.5% 66%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:10 MIA 18:53 26% 11% 2.2% 72%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 13:38 FLL 16:43 27% 13% 2.2% 61%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → LGA 16:30 FLL 19:56 27% 12% 1.4% 66%
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:45 FLL 21:52 27% 12% 1.9% 65%
AA 3016 American EWR 17:05 MIA 20:27 27% 14% 2.4% no record
AA 2836 American LGA 15:48 FLL 18:55 28% 13% 2.1% no record
AA 1922 American JFK 20:55 MIA 23:54 28% 9% 2.1% no record
DL 2382 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:55 MIA 23:22 28% 20% 2.1% 59%
AA 642 American JFK 14:43 MIA 17:45 28% 10% 3.6% no record
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:59 MIA 18:30 28% 14% 2.3% 63%
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 15:28 FLL 18:30 28% 11% 1.8% 42%
AA 2525 American LGA 15:37 MIA 18:44 28% 14% 2.4% no record
UA 2096 United EWR 17:58 FLL 21:08 29% 11% 1.3% no record
UA 435 United EWR 19:40 FLL 22:52 30% 12% 1.1% no record
UA 1498 United EWR 15:41 MIA 18:30 30% 11% 1.1% no record
AA 2603 American Flight history → JFK 18:08 MIA 21:08 30% 11% 2.2% 66%
AA 2228 American JFK 15:55 MIA 18:57 30% 10% 3.9% no record
AA 3135 American Flight history → LGA 17:13 MIA 20:27 32% 17% 2.8% 63%
UA 791 United EWR 20:22 MIA 23:20 32% 16% 1.4% no record
AA 845 American LGA 20:43 MIA 23:21 32% 17% 2.4% no record
DL 1620 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:50 MIA 21:21 33% 19% 2.2% 58%
B6 371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 16:08 FLL 19:12 34% 17% 2.0% 52%
AA 3088 American Flight history → LGA 18:40 MIA 21:55 35% 18% 3.6% 35%
B6 571 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 20:50 FLL 23:59 35% 18% 2.0% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON