Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2245 at 15:47, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2245 Southwest	OAK 15:47	ABQ 19:17	8%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:45 → ABQ 22:30DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest	4h 25m	91%	87%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:01 → SEA 08:06AS 705	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327	6h 52m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON