Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2958 OAK 06:37 → BUR 07:57 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2962 OAK 14:11 → BUR 15:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2958 Southwest	OAK 06:37	BUR 07:57	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 2609 Southwest	OAK 09:26	BUR 10:46	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 2963 Southwest	OAK 17:06	BUR 18:27	6%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 2959 Southwest	OAK 11:46	BUR 13:06	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 4218 Southwest	OAK 19:15	BUR 20:36	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2962 Southwest	OAK 14:11	BUR 15:31	7%	3%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON