Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 847 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 08:25	HNL 10:59	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
WN 808 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:20	HNL 13:55	18%	4%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:30 → SLC 09:26DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	10h 49m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	2h 02m Kahului	OGG 11:19 → HNL 12:13AS 1085	8h 13m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	OAK 10:33 → LIH 13:22AS 967	2h 51m Lihue	LIH 16:13 → HNL 17:06AS 1124	9h 33m	98%	64%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:57AS 705	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 12:10 → HNL 15:15AS 899	11h 20m	99%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON