Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2973 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–10%.

Safest bet that day WN 2973 OAK 05:32 → LAS 07:04 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2046 OAK 12:41 → LAS 14:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2973 Southwest	OAK 05:32	LAS 07:04	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4290 Southwest	OAK 08:09	LAS 09:45	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 599 Southwest	OAK 09:31	LAS 11:07	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4291 Southwest	OAK 20:21	LAS 21:56	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 950 Southwest	OAK 18:43	LAS 20:15	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1640 Southwest	OAK 11:46	LAS 13:19	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 498 Southwest	OAK 13:52	LAS 15:24	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2046 Frontier	OAK 12:41	LAS 14:33	13%	6%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON