Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4150 at 08:28 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4150 OAK 08:28 → LIH 11:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2985 OAK 13:42 → LIH 16:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4150 Southwest	OAK 08:28	LIH 11:11	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 967 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 10:33	LIH 13:22	12%	3%	0.9%	91%
WN 2985 Southwest	OAK 13:42	LIH 16:11	24%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON