Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3266 OAK 07:56 → PDX 09:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2222 OAK 13:54 → PDX 15:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3266 SkyWest	OAK 07:56	PDX 09:52	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2427 Southwest	OAK 10:19	PDX 12:06	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 3372 SkyWest	OAK 18:45	PDX 20:40	6%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2045 Southwest	OAK 18:12	PDX 19:58	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2222 Southwest	OAK 13:54	PDX 15:41	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 2298 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 07:52	PDX 09:29	4%	2%	0.0%	96%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON