Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 257 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 257 OAK 06:22 → SAN 08:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3008 OAK 18:51 → SAN 20:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 257 Southwest	OAK 06:22	SAN 08:02	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3001 Southwest	OAK 08:02	SAN 09:36	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 3111 SkyWest	OAK 06:43	SAN 08:26	11%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3011 Southwest	OAK 10:23	SAN 11:59	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1419 Southwest	OAK 15:32	SAN 17:12	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 249 Southwest	OAK 16:38	SAN 18:13	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3103 SkyWest	OAK 15:07	SAN 16:50	18%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4553 Southwest	OAK 12:49	SAN 14:23	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3107 SkyWest	OAK 13:23	SAN 15:06	19%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 2368 Southwest	OAK 13:59	SAN 15:33	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3008 Southwest	OAK 18:51	SAN 20:26	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2288 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 06:49	SAN 08:25	4%	2%	7.7%	96%
AS 2229 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 20:10	SAN 21:47	46%	6%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON