Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2887 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2887 OAK 05:46 → SEA 07:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 536 OAK 14:09 → SEA 16:13 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2887 Southwest	OAK 05:46	SEA 07:49	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 705 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 06:01	SEA 08:06	7%	2%	0.8%	89%
WN 343 Southwest	OAK 13:56	SEA 15:53	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 735 Alaska	OAK 10:17	SEA 12:22	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4412 Southwest	OAK 18:09	SEA 20:09	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 1359 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 19:47	SEA 21:50	19%	4%	0.7%	74%
AS 536 Alaska	OAK 14:09	SEA 16:13	21%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON