Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3016 OAK 07:01 → SNA 08:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1701 OAK 15:04 → SNA 16:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3016 Southwest	OAK 07:01	SNA 08:31	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1194 Southwest	OAK 08:59	SNA 10:25	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3020 Southwest	OAK 16:28	SNA 17:59	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1581 Southwest	OAK 19:17	SNA 20:43	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3017 Southwest	OAK 11:22	SNA 12:52	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1701 Southwest	OAK 15:04	SNA 16:30	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON