Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 116 American Flight history →	OGG 17:46	DFW 06:00	18%	7%	1.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 5 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 47m San Francisco	SFO 16:56 → DFW 22:35UA 1336	10h 25m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 17:52 → DFW 23:40AS 542	11h 40m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON