Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3213 at 07:18 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3213 OGG 07:18 → HNL 08:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1135 OGG 14:00 → HNL 14:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3213 Southwest	OGG 07:18	HNL 08:13	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3024 Southwest	OGG 07:19	HNL 08:15	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3023 Southwest	OGG 05:54	HNL 06:50	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3212 Southwest	OGG 05:58	HNL 06:53	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3214 Southwest	OGG 09:48	HNL 10:43	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3025 Southwest	OGG 09:55	HNL 10:51	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3026 Southwest	OGG 11:57	HNL 12:53	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3028 Southwest	OGG 15:39	HNL 16:35	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1025 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:15	HNL 07:54	10%	2%	1.2%	88%
WN 3032 Southwest	OGG 18:57	HNL 19:53	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3029 Southwest	OGG 17:25	HNL 18:21	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1015 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 05:51	HNL 06:45	12%	2%	1.2%	86%
WN 3027 Southwest	OGG 13:46	HNL 14:42	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1045 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:41	HNL 09:20	15%	2%	1.2%	87%
AS 1055 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:18	HNL 09:58	18%	2%	1.2%	91%
AS 1085 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:30	HNL 11:12	19%	3%	1.2%	84%
AS 1065 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:45	HNL 10:27	20%	2%	1.2%	82%
AS 1075 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:06	HNL 10:48	20%	2%	1.2%	80%
AS 1105 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:39	HNL 12:28	20%	3%	1.2%	84%
AS 1415 Alaska	OGG 10:17	HNL 11:10	22%	2%	1.2%	no record
AS 1115 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:57	HNL 12:40	24%	3%	1.2%	83%
AS 1095 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:52	HNL 11:34	25%	3%	1.2%	77%
AS 1205 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 18:55	HNL 19:44	25%	3%	1.2%	75%
AS 1185 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 17:54	HNL 18:43	25%	4%	1.2%	74%
AS 1195 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 18:19	HNL 19:08	25%	3%	1.2%	73%
AS 1225 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 20:43	HNL 21:32	26%	4%	1.3%	74%
AS 1155 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:05	HNL 15:54	28%	5%	1.2%	68%
AS 1165 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 16:19	HNL 17:08	28%	6%	1.0%	65%
AS 1145 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:04	HNL 15:45	28%	5%	1.2%	65%
AS 1175 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 16:46	HNL 17:35	28%	5%	1.3%	69%
AS 1135 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:00	HNL 14:42	31%	5%	1.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON