Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 1129 at 17:39, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 1129 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 17:39	ITO 18:17	25%	3%	0.7%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 05:51 → HNL 06:45AS 1015	3h 16m Honolulu	HNL 10:01 → ITO 10:55AS 1032	5h 04m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	OGG 12:07 → HNL 13:01AS 1095	3h 34m Honolulu	HNL 16:35 → ITO 17:40AS 1102	5h 33m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	OGG 13:43 → HNL 14:37AS 1125	3h 49m Honolulu	HNL 18:26 → ITO 19:31AS 1112	5h 48m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	3h 04m Honolulu	HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27AS 1062	4h 42m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 58m Honolulu	HNL 12:18 → ITO 13:14AS 1052	4h 33m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145	3h 35m Honolulu	HNL 19:20 → ITO 20:25AS 1122	5h 21m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	OGG 11:18 → HNL 12:12AS 1085	3h 09m Honolulu	HNL 15:21 → ITO 16:15AS 1082	4h 57m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	OGG 16:19 → HNL 17:09AS 1165	3h 52m Honolulu	HNL 21:01 → ITO 22:06AS 1132	5h 47m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145	50m Honolulu	HNL 16:35 → ITO 17:40AS 1102	2h 36m	62%	48%
Alaska Details →	OGG 16:46 → HNL 17:36AS 1175	50m Honolulu	HNL 18:26 → ITO 19:31AS 1112	2h 45m	51%	38%
Alaska Details →	OGG 11:57 → HNL 12:40AS 1115	51m Honolulu	HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27AS 1062	2h 30m	48%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON