Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:29 pm at Kahului); 6 already left

Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: 9X 503 at 16:58, 31%.

Nonstops today


9X 503 Southern Airways Express	OGG 16:58	KOA 18:07	31%	12%	5.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 18:33 → HNL 19:28AS 1175	1h 40m Honolulu	HNL 21:08 → KOA 22:06AS 1198	3h 33m	94%	56%
Alaska Details →	OGG 18:55 → HNL 19:45AS 1205	1h 18m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → KOA 21:50AS 1178	2h 55m	82%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON