tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 12:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3035 Southwest OGG 20:32 LAS 05:03 6% 1% 0.4% no record
AS 932 Alaska Flight history → OGG 10:36 LAS 19:10 13% 3% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406 8h 10m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958 1h 42m San Francisco SFO 16:51 → LAS 18:41UA 751 8h 31m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 18:55 → HNL 19:45AS 1205 3h 35m Honolulu HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808 10h 08m 97% 77%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 11:18 → HNL 12:12AS 1085 2h 57m Honolulu HNL 15:09 → LAS 23:47AS 818 9h 29m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 05:51 → HNL 06:45AS 1015 1h 10m Honolulu HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806 7h 48m 92% 72%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246 1h 37m Seattle SEA 17:19 → LAS 19:42AS 678 9h 42m 94% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON