Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 463 OGG 13:19 → LAX 21:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AS 934 OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 463 Delta Flight history →	OGG 13:19	LAX 21:40	11%	3%	0.8%	80%
UA 418 United Flight history →	OGG 13:04	LAX 21:21	13%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 981 Alaska	OGG 12:17	LAX 20:33	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 254 American Flight history →	OGG 13:14	LAX 21:40	16%	5%	0.6%	81%
AS 934 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:00	LAX 23:07	17%	5%	0.7%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	1h 35m Honolulu	HNL 10:55 → LAX 19:17AS 878	7h 36m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	OGG 05:51 → HNL 06:45AS 1015	1h 15m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 29m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	1h 17m Honolulu	HNL 11:44 → LAX 20:05AS 826	7h 20m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON