Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:06, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AS 972 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:24	LGB 19:42	9%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 05m Honolulu	HNL 12:25 → LGB 20:46AS 870	9h 05m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 18:14 → LGB 20:43AS 428	10h 43m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095	51m Honolulu	HNL 12:25 → LGB 20:46AS 870	6h 54m	59%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON