Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3178 OGG 09:58 → OAK 17:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 924 OGG 12:15 → OAK 20:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3178 Southwest	OGG 09:58	OAK 17:50	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4302 Southwest	OGG 10:06	OAK 18:07	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
AS 924 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:15	OAK 20:15	13%	4%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON