Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 890 OGG 11:13 → PDX 19:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 480 OGG 11:22 → PDX 19:38 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 890 Alaska	OGG 11:13	PDX 19:41	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 558 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:51	PDX 06:08	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
AS 480 Alaska	OGG 11:22	PDX 19:38	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 10:28 → KOA 11:21AS 1030	1h 03m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:24 → PDX 21:03AS 833	7h 35m	89%	78%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	51m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	7h 48m	87%	76%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	1h 34m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	7h 44m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON