Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1697 Southwest	OGG 20:25	PHX 05:07	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 432 American Flight history →	OGG 21:45	PHX 06:41	14%	4%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 50m San Francisco	SFO 18:59 → PHX 20:57UA 1375	10h 47m	98%	80%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 21:01 → PHX 22:59UA 1653	7h 59m	92%	78%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:15 → HNL 07:54AS 1025	3h 56m Honolulu	HNL 11:50 → PHX 20:46AS 836	10h 31m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 18:57 → PHX 21:45AS 632	11h 45m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON