Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3041 at 20:53 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3041 OGG 20:53 → SAN 05:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 203 OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3041 Southwest	OGG 20:53	SAN 05:08	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 484 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 22:36	SAN 06:49	19%	4%	1.2%	76%
AS 203 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:22	SAN 20:43	24%	5%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	OGG 13:19 → LAX 21:40DL 463	1h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	90%	79%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	1h 00m San Francisco	SFO 20:59 → SAN 22:37UA 442	7h 37m	91%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON