Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 394 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 394 OGG 21:15 → SEA 05:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 930 OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 394 Delta Flight history →	OGG 21:15	SEA 05:54	12%	4%	0.7%	96%
AS 246 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:00	SEA 15:42	13%	3%	0.7%	93%
AS 206 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:18	SEA 05:44	19%	4%	0.7%	82%
AS 930 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:55	SEA 21:25	25%	6%	0.7%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 10:28 → KOA 11:21AS 1030	1h 17m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:38 → SEA 21:10AS 475	7h 42m	94%	75%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	1h 29m Honolulu	HNL 10:49 → SEA 19:26AS 902	7h 45m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:15 → HNL 07:54AS 1025	1h 45m Honolulu	HNL 09:39 → SEA 18:24AS 122	8h 09m	99%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON