Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:24 am at Kahului)

Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 954 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:24	SJC 21:25	22%	9%	1.4%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	1h 14m Honolulu	HNL 11:41 → SJC 19:39AS 839	6h 54m	89%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	53m Honolulu	HNL 11:41 → SJC 19:39AS 839	6h 33m	52%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON