Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 397 Delta Flight history →	OGG 20:08	SLC 06:00	7%	3%	0.9%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 4 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 37m San Francisco	SFO 18:46 → SLC 21:45UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	10h 35m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 49m Honolulu	HNL 12:09 → SLC 22:20AS 554	9h 39m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	2h 21m Honolulu	HNL 12:48 → SLC 22:42AS 715	8h 57m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 18:26 → SLC 21:20AS 669	10h 20m	99%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON