tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2990 at 10:59 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2990 Southwest OKC 10:59 DCA 14:54 8% 3% 0.4% no record
AA 2475 American OKC 17:11 DCA 21:11 19% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:02 → LGA 10:30AA 4535 · flown by Republic 3h 12m New York LGA 13:42 → DCA 15:14AA 4773 · flown by Republic 8h 12m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 5h 58m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 54m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 7h 52m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → OKC 07:25 → DFW 08:34AA 2272 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 34m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → OKC 08:45 → ORD 11:11UA 5823 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m Chicago ORD 15:00 → DCA 18:11UA 1941 8h 26m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → OKC 06:20 → LGA 10:49DL 5172 · flown by Endeavor 3h 51m New York LGA 14:40 → DCA 16:19DL 5709 · flown by Republic 8h 59m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OKC 14:33 → IAH 16:10UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 49m Houston IAH 16:59 → DCA 21:16UA 235 5h 43m 69% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON