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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 705 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 705 OKC 07:10 → DEN 07:52 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2422 OKC 17:07 → DEN 18:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 705 Southwest OKC 07:10 DEN 07:52 2% 1% 0.4% no record
UA 4751 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 06:05 DEN 06:58 4% 3% 0.5% 94%
WN 404 Southwest OKC 14:48 DEN 15:31 8% 2% 0.5% no record
UA 5490 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 11:30 DEN 12:28 8% 5% 0.5% 86%
WN 971 Southwest OKC 19:23 DEN 20:04 10% 3% 0.5% no record
UA 2609 United Flight history → OKC 08:59 DEN 10:10 10% 4% 0.5% 77%
UA 4768 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 18:43 DEN 19:31 11% 5% 0.6% 72%
F9 1927 Frontier Flight history → OKC 20:18 DEN 21:09 14% 5% 0.8% 80%
UA 2422 United OKC 17:07 DEN 18:22 15% 5% 0.6% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON