Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 656 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 656 OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2812 OKC 19:11 → DFW 19:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 656 American Flight history →	OKC 05:01	DFW 06:07	5%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 3119 American	OKC 05:49	DFW 06:55	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6203 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:25	DFW 09:44	7%	4%	0.5%	86%
AA 2272 American Flight history →	OKC 07:25	DFW 08:34	7%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1902 American Flight history →	OKC 11:00	DFW 12:09	8%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 3099 American	OKC 12:25	DFW 13:35	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	OKC 15:18	DFW 16:33	12%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 2832 American	OKC 17:23	DFW 18:37	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2812 American Flight history →	OKC 19:11	DFW 19:45	25%	6%	0.7%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON