Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1262 OKC 07:00 → IAH 08:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5531 OKC 13:43 → IAH 15:25 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1262 United	OKC 07:00	IAH 08:36	9%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5201 SkyWest	OKC 11:04	IAH 12:37	10%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 5531 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:43	IAH 15:25	10%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 3996 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 19:05	IAH 20:48	7%	4%	0.9%	93%
UA 6253 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 17:05	IAH 18:53	16%	5%	0.0%	84%
UA 6255 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 09:39	IAH 11:15	17%	3%	0.0%	83%
UA 4361 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 12:01	IAH 13:38	21%	12%	3.8%	79%
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 14:33	IAH 16:10	26%	11%	0.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON