Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6378 OKC 13:34 → LAX 14:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 215 OKC 07:20 → LAX 08:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6378 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:34	LAX 14:53	9%	5%	0.6%	95%
AA 6384 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:26	LAX 08:52	9%	4%	0.7%	91%
OO 215 SkyWest	OKC 07:20	LAX 08:34	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON