Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4994 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4994 OKC 07:39 → ORD 10:03 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest OO 4744 OKC 17:48 → ORD 20:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4994 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:39	ORD 10:03	8%	6%	0.6%	63%
UA 2183 United	OKC 07:15	ORD 09:31	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5823 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:45	ORD 11:11	10%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 5867 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:22	ORD 15:48	12%	9%	0.7%	76%
MQ 4037 Envoy	OKC 12:37	ORD 14:55	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 6395 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:34	ORD 15:49	13%	9%	0.7%	73%
OO 9914 SkyWest	OKC 19:42	ORD 21:54	15%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 6484 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 19:05	ORD 21:19	16%	9%	0.7%	65%
OO 4744 SkyWest	OKC 17:48	ORD 20:04	19%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON