Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3054 OKC 07:54 → PHX 08:32 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4894 OKC 14:44 → PHX 15:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3054 Southwest	OKC 07:54	PHX 08:32	3%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3055 Southwest	OKC 18:25	PHX 19:04	7%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 6392 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:59	PHX 09:32	9%	7%	0.6%	84%
OO 4894 SkyWest	OKC 14:44	PHX 15:20	10%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON