Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1442 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 1442 OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1873 OMA 19:24 → DEN 20:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1442 United Flight history →	OMA 06:00	DEN 06:49	3%	2%	0.5%	94%
OO 5935 SkyWest	OMA 11:37	DEN 12:47	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4654 Southwest	OMA 07:26	DEN 08:00	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
OO 5504 SkyWest	OMA 19:08	DEN 20:18	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4369 Southwest	OMA 14:34	DEN 15:11	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 1195 United Flight history →	OMA 13:48	DEN 14:35	8%	2%	0.5%	85%
UA 2838 United Flight history →	OMA 09:06	DEN 09:55	9%	2%	0.5%	76%
WN 3036 Southwest	OMA 19:16	DEN 19:52	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1573 United	OMA 17:11	DEN 17:50	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 1873 Frontier Flight history →	OMA 19:24	DEN 20:22	15%	4%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON